Dramatic Melting of Arctic Ice Can Lead to Extinction of Polar Bears by the End of the Century: Scientists Warn

The Arctic has always captivated the human imagination, with its vast white wilderness and thick layers of snow. Among the mysterious creatures of the Arctic, the polar bear reigns as a symbol of strength. But beneath this frozen realm lies a harsh reality. Each passing year, the ice grows thinner, the melt comes sooner, and the balance of life tips further out of reach. In a startling study, scientists warn that polar bears could vanish by the end of this century, as per AGU. The culprit? Rapidly melting sea ice driven by climate change, a problem that has transformed the Arctic into a litmus test for our planet’s future.

Dr. Steven Amstrup, chief scientist at Polar Bears International, remarked, "What we've shown is that, first, we'll lose the survival of cubs, so cubs will be born but the females won't have enough body fat to produce milk to bring them along through the ice-free season… Any of us know that we can only go without food for so long… that's a biological reality for all species," as per the BBC. Intriguingly, his warning is not theoretical; some bear populations may already have reached their survival limits. The focal point of this drama is the Arctic’s “Last Ice Area,” a place once believed to be nature’s stronghold, home to the oldest and thickest sea ice on Earth. Spanning over 380,000 square miles from Canada to Greenland, this fortress of 13-foot-thick ice was expected to resist climate impacts for decades.

But, sadly, not anymore. Under even the most hopeful climate models, much of this ice could thin dramatically by 2050. Under the worst-case scenario? Gone by 2100. Yes, you read that right. Polar bears, which depend on this ice to hunt seals and support their young, are especially vulnerable. Their very biology ties them to this environment: powerful jaws evolved to consume seals, and a hunting strategy that majorly depends on ice. On land, they have been seen struggling to hunt for bird eggs and scavenging carcasses, but it is not worth it. A 2015 study noted that these desperate attempts do not provide enough calories to survive, and the consequences will be huge. Researchers revealed, "Ringed seals and polar bears, for example, have relied on their dens in the ridged and corrugated sea-ice surface to stay approximately in one place," as per Live Science.

Moreover, Robert Newton, senior research scientist at Columbia University, shared, "Unfortunately, this is a massive experiment we're doing… If the year-round ice goes away, entire ice-dependent ecosystems will collapse, and something new will begin… This is not to say it will be a barren, lifeless environment… New things will emerge, but it may take some time for new creatures to invade," as per State of the Planet. Some experts believe hybrid ‘pizzly’ bears, offspring of polar bears and grizzlies, may begin to replace pure Arctic bears.

As if this were not enough, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a troubling report that Earth is on track to surpass the critical 1.5°C warming threshold within two decades unless global emissions peak soon. Dr. Amstrup warns, "The trajectory we're on now is not a good one, but if society gets its act together, we have time to save polar bears. And if we do, we will benefit the rest of life on Earth, including ourselves," as per the BBC. As the clock is ticking, one needs to act fast to see some changes in the environment.