Scientists Believe an Asteroid Might Crash Into the Moon in 2032, a Once-in-5,000-Year Event

A recently discovered asteroid has entered the limelight, putting scientists around the world on alert. According to a study published in the American Astronomical Society, the asteroid 2024 YR4 has 1% chance of colliding with Earth. The results of the analysis do not stop there, making it a volatile object that is under surveillance by astronomers. A following report showed that the chances of it making an impact on Earth have significantly fallen, but the Moon may not be spared from the same fate.

Thoughts on the Moon

"The odds of an impact into the Moon have always been there. It's been lower at that time because the Earth [was] a bigger target," explained Dr Andrew Rivkin, planetary scientist from Johns Hopkins University, Maryland, per IFL Science. Initial reports showed that the object had a 3.8 percent probability of hitting the natural satellite, but observations from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) have updated the chances. NASA proclaimed that the chance of impact has changed to 4.3 percent on the Moon on December 22, 2032. On that date, the asteroid will pass around 0.00007 Astronomical Units (AU) of the Moon, 1 AU being the distance between Earth and the Sun.

While the impact on Earth could be easily a terrifying prospect, hitting the Moon, however, has astronomers excited. It would potentially cause a meteor shower, the researchers report. “It would be visible from Earth and there would even be new lunar meteorites that would arrive on Earth (nothing dangerous), but there is no guarantee. Definitely, a new observable moon crater would be the outcome!" remarked Richard Moissl, the head of the Planetary Defence Office in the European Space Agency.

The Reports Over the Moon

Reports by NASA emphasized that the asteroid making impact on the lunar surface will not affect or change the Moon's orbit. A study by Paul Wiegert, professor of physics at the University of Western Ontario, explains that it could release around 6.5 megatons of TNT in energy, leaving the Moon with a crater less than a mile in diameter. "If 2024 YR4 strikes the Moon in 2032, it will (statistically speaking) be the largest impact in approximately 5,000 years. We estimate that up to 108 kg of lunar material could be liberated in such an impact by exceeding lunar escape speed," the team explained in the paper. Through various simulations, the team found that the ejected pieces of Moon fragments could cause a beautiful meteor shower on Earth.

While it would be an event of a lifetime, it will plunge the world's governments and other satellites into chaos. "If the impact happens on the side of the Moon towards the Earth, the impact will be visible, though hard to catch. There will be a brief bright flash followed by a dust cloud that will disperse over a few minutes. But the cloud and the resulting crater (which will be about a km across) will be near the limit of what can be clearly seen from Earth. Spacecraft in orbit will get a much better view," Wiegert added.

Asteroid YR4 in the Future

The odds of impact are low, and the possibility of viewing that celestial event of the century might be even lower. For now, it is still too far away to make any further reports on, but by the year 2032, researchers believe it can be viewed a bit more clearly. "Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to be observed with space-based or ground-based telescopes," NASA commented in a statement.