Paris Agreement's 1.5°C Threshold Could Be Breached Soon: 'The Window Is Rapidly Closing'

A vital climate threshold is very close to being breached, per recent findings. The threshold in question is related to global warming, which could soon bypass the symbolic limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.6 degrees Fahrenheit), according to Live Science. This limit was decided by the 2015 Paris Agreement and signed by 200 countries. The agreement directs the countries to prevent temperature rises, ideally till 1.5°C above the pre-industrial levels in the 1800s and safely below 2°C under the same context. Bypassing this limit could lead to disastrous consequences for Earth, such as heat waves and the melting of the West Antarctic and Greenland Ice sheets. The assessment was published in Earth System Science Data. 

Countdown to Three Years

Around 60 of the world's leading climate scientists have proclaimed that the 1.5°C  will be breached in just a matter of three years. Only 143 billion tons (130 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide need to be emitted into the atmosphere to cross the limit. Currently, humans are releasing over 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year. As per this estimate, it would take around three years for the carbon emissions to reach 143 billion tons, and after some years, the temperature would increase due to climate lag, per ecogardens.

"The window to stay within 1.5°C is rapidly closing," study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London, said. "Global warming is already affecting the lives of billions of people around the world. Every small increase in warming matters, leading to more frequent, more intense weather extremes." Experts have been warning for a long time about this impending disaster. However, circumstances have seemingly gotten worse.

Shrinking of 'Carbon Budget'

In 2020, scientists informed several countries that only 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) could be emitted for a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, according to the BBC. Most countries ignored this warning, as in just a matter of five years, this 'carbon budget' of 500 billion tonnes has been reduced by more than half to 143 billion tonnes. This shrinking is mostly due to record emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in recent years. However, the improvement in the technology used for estimating could have also played a part.

Scientists predicted the breach after considering ten indicators of climate change. These indicators included sea-level rises, Earth's energy imbalances, global temperature extremes, surface temperature changes, and assertions regarding the last 'carbon budget.' The analysis showed that Earth was heating up by around 0.49°F (0.27°C) each decade. It is the fastest rate of heating ever recorded by humans in the history of the Earth. Last year, the average temperatures were recorded at 1.36°C above pre-industrial levels. Still, the world has not yet breached the limits set by the Paris Agreement. It is because the Paris Agreement regards the average temperature over two to three decades to calculate the planet's warming. 

Consequences of this phenomenon

Researchers claim that the increased emissions, along with the breach, will lead to some disastrous circumstances for the planet, according to Live Science. The increased emissions are causing extra heat to accumulate in the atmosphere at a surprising rate. The accumulation has been estimated to be 25% faster in this decade than it was in the last. 90% of this heat goes into oceans, which hampers the marine ecosystem. "Since 1900, the global mean sea level has risen by around 228 mm. This seemingly small number is having an outsized impact on low-lying coastal areas, making storm surges more damaging and causing more coastal erosion, posing a threat to humans and coastal ecosystems," co-author Aimée Slangen, a climatologist at the NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, shared.

A study published in Nature claims that the warming will also lead to a reduction in the yields of important crops like maize and wheat. The production of these particular crops could decline by 40% in countries like the US, Russia, and China. Another examination suggests that increasing temperatures will put more land on Earth in droughts. Despite such distressing estimates, people should not stop with their measures to prevent temperature elevations. "Emissions over the next decade will determine how soon and how fast 1.5°C of warming is reached," Rogelj claimed. "They need to be swiftly reduced to meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement."