Researchers found emissions from major fossil fuel and cement producers cause severe heatwaves: Study

Researchers may have identified the cause behind some of the most intense heatwaves on the planet. These triggers have been explained in a recent study published in the journal Nature. The study considers 213 heatwaves observed from 2000 to 2023 as its primary focus. Experts noted that, as time went on, the severity of heatwaves increased. The commercial use of fossil fuels was a primary reason behind this change, according to the study. Of all the extreme heat events monitored in the study, a quarter of them would be virtually impossible, if not for the climate pollution facilitated by the biggest "carbon majors" in the world.

Connection Between Heatwaves and Global Warming

This study stands apart from others because it considered the evaluation of an expansive set of heatwaves, according to CNN. During the analysis, researchers found that increasing global warming was directly proportional to the increasing severity of heatwaves. Climate change brought by global warming enhanced the likelihood of heatwaves from 20 to 200, as per experts. Researchers were also able to pinpoint the exact source, elevating this issue.

This trigger turned out to be the incessant exploitation of fossil fuels facilitated by carbon majors. For an unbiased approach, researchers examined heatwaves across all seven continents of the Earth, according to the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). All of these heatwaves were widely reported in the media due to the casualties and losses they left in their wake. 

What are Carbon Majors?

Researchers claim that fossil exploitation responsible for heatwaves is mostly being facilitated by 180 commercial companies. These companies are some of the world's biggest fossil fuel and cement producers. The study refers to them as "carbon majors" due to their overall contribution to global carbon emissions. The team used several methodologies to determine how each carbon major contributed to the increase in global average temperature. They created climate models that did not involve the emissions contributed by the carbon majors. Every model gave them an idea of how each of these companies altered the global temperature.

The objective was to figure out how much temperature elevation was caused by the companies, and then use the readings to understand their impact on heat waves. "For each heat wave, we calculate how climate change affected its intensity and likelihood," lead author Yann Quilcaille, a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich, explained. "We identify both the impact of each individual company and the combined effects of other human and natural factors."

Involvement of Carbon Majors

All 180 companies contributed to increasing the temperature and bringing forth climate change. This climate change, in turn, made the heatwaves more severe and frequent. "Our work shows that the fingerprints of major fossil fuel and cement producers are clearly visible in today's deadly heat waves. This isn't just about abstract global averages, it's about events that harm people, economies, and ecosystems in very real ways," said study coauthor Thomas Gasser, a senior researcher in the IIASA Integrated Assessment and Climate Change Research Group.

The study cited that half of the change in global mean surface temperature during 2023 was due to the emissions from carbon majors. Amongst them, 14 stood out the most, as their contributions equalled the overall contributions made by the remaining 166 organizations combined. However, commercial use of fossil fuels has often been regarded as harmful to the environment. It is the first time a study has focused on its role in the severity of a climatic phenomenon like heatwaves. "Past studies have mostly looked at emissions from people and countries. This time, we're focusing on the big carbon emitters," explained Quilcaille. "These companies and corporations have also primarily pursued their economic interests, even though they have known since the 1980s that burning fossil fuels will lead to global warming."

Researchers are hopeful that these insights will remove some of the disinformation spread by certain parties to encourage fossil fuel exploitation. Experts are also ready to present the study in court to hold these entities responsible and pave the way for a better future. "Courts are indicating a willingness to hold carbon majors accountable, but at the same time asking for more scientific certainty, and our study helps to close a part of that gap," said Corina Heri, a study coauthor and law professor at Tilburg Law School in Zurich.