‘Vicious Circle’: Expert Warns Putin Needs to Keep Ukraine Battle Going to Prop Up Russia's 'War Society'

An intelligence expert has issued a troubling warning regarding Vladimir Putin's ongoing war efforts, suggesting that a NATO state may inadvertently become entangled in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Originally anticipating a swift capture of Kyiv, Putin finds himself embroiled in a conflict that has surpassed two years and resulted in significant casualties.

The expert argues that Putin's commitment to perpetuating the war stems from his transformation of Russia into a "war society," with the nation's economic stability now contingent upon continued military engagement, the Daily Star reported.

Despite initial economic setbacks following the invasion, Russia's economy has rebounded, fueled by the conflict. The Kremlin's hefty military budget for 2024, totaling $100 billion, has catalyzed unprecedented growth within the military-industrial complex.

This surge includes a threefold increase in armament enterprises, totaling approximately 6,000, and has driven Russia's unemployment rate to a historic low of 2.8% as citizens flock to jobs in the defense sector.

Neil Barnett, CEO of Istok Associates, emphasizes the symbiotic relationship between Russia's economy and the perpetuation of war, warning that without ongoing conflict, the nation faces economic collapse, thereby jeopardizing Putin's regime.

Barnett further outlines Putin's perceived entrapment in a "vicious circle" of war, wherein continued conflict is necessary to maintain regime legitimacy and quell domestic unrest.

This militarization, in turn, increases the likelihood of aggression towards NATO states, with Barnett suggesting that the invasion of a NATO nation may be the logical outcome of Putin's predicament.

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Recent rhetoric from Putin-aligned figures, such as propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, has intensified concerns, with claims that not only is Kyiv rightfully Russian territory, but that other NATO capitals, including Warsaw and Helsinki, may also be targeted for annexation.

Solovyov's assertions underscore the escalating tensions and the real possibility of broader regional conflict sparked by Putin's war-driven agenda.